US Bitcoin ETFs faced a historic $541 million outflow Monday as traders pulled back ahead of the highly anticipated election, sparking volatility concerns. While Fidelity and Grayscale saw the biggest losses, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF recorded the day’s only inflows.
Historic Outflow Marks Pre-Election Market Jitters
The day before a highly disputed election in the United States, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw their second-biggest outflow ever.
According to CoinGlass, only BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) saw inflows of $38.4 million on Monday, November 4th, out of the eleven major Bitcoin ETFs, which resulted in a net outflow of $541.1 million.
Outside of May 1, when $563.7 million left the ETFs in response to Bitcoin's 10.7 percent weekly decline to $60,000, this was the largest outflow day for the funds.
Bitcoin Traders Pull Back as Election Nears
With a 4.6% weekly decline and a 1.7% hourly decline, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $68,000, indicating that traders are hedging their bets in anticipation of Tuesday, November 5th, the US election.
With $169.6 million, the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund was the biggest November 4th outflow, followed by the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF with $138.3 million.
The combined outflow of $153.2 million was recorded by Grayscale's two Bitcoin ETFs.
Grayscale and Fidelity Lead in Outflows
Outflows of $63.7 million were recorded by the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which has had very few days of net inflow this year, while outflows of $89.5 million were recorded by its smaller GBTC—the fifth and third greatest outflows for the day, respectively.
There was a net inflow of $2.2 billion into US Bitcoin funds for the trading week ended Friday, Nov. 1. The outflow for the week was almost $55 million, Cointelegraph shares.
Polls Shift, Driving Volatility in Bitcoin Market
According to James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, "euphoria around the prospect of a Republican victory" drove the inflows for the majority of the week.
"As polls have turned, we saw minor outflows on Friday, highlighting how sensitive Bitcoin is to the US elections at present," he continued.
Market Sentiment Shifts as Polls Tighten
Polls show that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are virtually neck and neck; however, Harris has a 1.2 point advantage as of November 4th, according to data compiled by FiveThirtyEight.
After reaching a high of 67% on Oct. 30, the odds of Trump becoming president on the crypto betting platform Polymarket fell sharply to 53.8% on Nov. 3. Just over 59% of the time, he will win.
Crypto Speculation Rises on Pro-Crypto Stance
The Republican candidate's pro-crypto stance has made him the favorite of the crypto business, which has speculated that Bitcoin's value may reach $100,000 if he were to win the election again.